Diamondbacks could face difficult trade market

The Diamondbacks could face some difficulties with the trade market to fill the needs of their major league roster. Heading into the Winter Meetings, the team could be dealing with filling potential vacancies at first base, DH, and the bullpen. General manager Mike Hazen expects the 2025 payroll to be similar to the $173 million figure for 2024. Roster Resource already has the team at $149 million when accounting for contracts, arbitration estimates, and pre-arbitration salaries of the players on the active and 40-man roster.

With only $24 million to spend, the D-backs don’t have the space to address those needs in free agency, even if they can could get out of half of Jordan Montgomery’s $22.5 million salary for 2025. They will neeed to look for cheaper or more controllable players in the trade market. The difficulty in that approach is to execute a trade, they’ll have to give up talent. For a team that has playoff aspirations, they would be loathe to trade from their projected Opening Day roster.

Mike's Hardball Talk is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Looking at their roster, the team’s best trade chips are Zac Gallen, Ketel Marte, Jake McCarthy, and Kevin Ginkel. However, trading any of those four players could also negatively impact their ability to compete in 2025. With no clear candidate in the organization who could replace any of them effectively, they should hold onto them barring the ideal return. McCarthy might be the best candidate of the four to move in a sell-high move if they are still optimistic Alek Thomas can mitigate his worm-killing tendencies with the bat.

Outside of McCarthy, the players that Hazen will most likely get asked about are Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt, which would be a dealbreaker for Arizona. Given their own rotation issues, as Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Jordan Montgomery are all set to hit the free agent market after the 2025 season, they’re not going to part with their controllable starters unless they get a godfather offer. In addition, the lack of pitching in their farm system makes such a deal tougher to execute. While Cristian Mena, Yilber Diaz, Yu-Min Lin, and Dylan Ray are expected to start some games for Arizona in 2025, none of them are going to be relied on to carry the load unless the rotation is ravaged with injuries for the second straight season.

Hazen is no stranger to dealing with contending clubs where they deal off their major league roster to fill a need. His most notable examples come in 2016, 2022, and 2023, when he acquired Ketel Marte, Gabriel Moreno, and Eugenio Suárez. In two of the three cases, they gave up a high-level contributor as he dealt Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, and Daulton Varsho. However, they don’t necessarily have the same roster surplus to be able to fill those gaps internally.

If the D-backs are unwilling to deal from their major league roster, they’ll have to turn to their farm system. The strength of the farm system is the number of infield bats. Tommy Troy and Gino Groover are likely their best trade chip from the farm system, as middle infield is the strongest area in terms of bats. With Demetrio Crisantes, Jansel Luis, and Cristofer Torin just a year behind him, they could part with Troy to get a starting first baseman with multiple years of control and still have a capable prospect who could fill in for Ketel Marte as he becomes a full-time DH. We saw a similar dynamic play out in 2019, as the D-backs dealt Jazz Chisholm to get Gallen thanks to the emergence of Geraldo Perdomo as a legitimate prospect.

The issue with matching up with a team is if the D-backs have the right players and prospects to execute a deal. Ryan Mountcastle and Nathaniel Lowe would be ideal candidates to fill the hole at first base, but the Baltimore Orioles and the Texas Rangers are tough fits. Both teams have star-level talent on their infield and their primary needs are pitching. So without a third team involved in the deal, it’s going to be tricky for Arizona to land either player.

Should they be unable to find a contender who they can successfully swap with, that will limit the number of suitors to teams rebuilding in 2026. That in itself is a risky proposition, as those teams might not have the players that the D-backs need. There’s a reason those teams are rebuilding, and typically it’s due to the lack of difference-making talent and they may want to hold onto the few they have if there’s a chance at a quick turnaround.

Hazen will have to thread the needle when it comes to addressing the needs of the major league roster. While they will certainly leave no stone unturned, the issues with the trade market will have to force them to be creative.

Michael McDermott has been writing about the Arizona Diamondbacks, and their minor league system, for 9 seasons for AZ Snake Pit, Diamondbacks on SI, and Burn City Sports. You can follow him on X at x.com/michaelmcdmlb or at Bluesky.