Merrill Kelly Heads to Rangers as D-backs Reload Pitching Pipeline

The Arizona Diamondbacks have completed one more significant trade, sending right-hander Merrill Kelly to the Texas Rangers in exchange for three pitching prospects. Zac Gallen, the team’s Opening Day starter, will remain in Arizona.

Kelly became the fourth expiring contract to be dealt ahead of the deadline. The team sent Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez to the Mariners, and Randal Grichuk to the Royals. The last time Kelly started a game at Globe Life Field, it was Game 2 of the 2023 World Series, where he outdueled his future teammate (Jordan Montgomery) in a 9-1 victory.

In the deal, the D-backs received three legitimate starting pitching prospects: LHP Kohl Drake, LHP Mitch Bratt, and RHP David Hagaman. That should help stock up the farm system with more legitimate pitching talent, beyond the four bullpen arms they’ve picked up in their other three trades.

As I was writing this piece, the D-backs dealt Shelby Miller, with the return being $2 million saved on the disastrous Jordan Montgomery deal signed in March 2024. That’s a salary dump trade not worth any analysis, so I’m including this at the top.

Here are my main takeaways from this deal, followed by a separate piece for the entire deadline as a whole on a different day.

The Rangers Paid Up the Wazoo for Merrill Kelly

As I mentioned in a previous newsletter, Merrill Kelly was one of 11 pitchers since the start of the 2021 season to make at least 125 starts with an ERA+ of 115 or better. That was going to make him a very attractive rental starter in the market. While Mike Hazen always had the option of holding onto him and extending the qualifying offer, this deal was simply too good to pass up.

In his last 20 starts, following the Yankee Stadium disaster on April 3rd, he’s been the model of consistency. In 16 of those starts, he’s allowed three runs or fewer, including 12 quality starts. While Arizona’s record isn’t great, at 10-10, it’s not necessarily his fault the team wasn’t winning.

Kelly slots in as the Rangers’ No. 3 starter behind Nathan Eovaldi and Jacob deGrom. They have options for their other two spots between former Diamondback All-Star Patrick Corbin, Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, and Tyler Mahle. I would project Mahle to be their No. 4 starter and Patrick Corbin as their No. 5 moving forward. If they make the postseason, I would expect Corbin to go to the bullpen.

The Rangers, desperate to get back into the postseason after their 2023 World Series triumph over the D-backs, paid an exorbitant price for 11 Merrill Kelly starts. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS model projects Kelly to make 10 more starts this season, with a 3.89 ERA, 21.7% strikeout rate, and a 7.1% walk rate over 58 innings. That equates to roughly 0.7 fWAR.

The deal once again serves as a reminder that teams will pay up the wazoo for frontline starting pitching.

What Does the D-backs Rotation Look Like Now?

We can assume that right-hander Anthony DeSclafani will take Kelly’s place in the rotation, as originally reported by Arizona Sports insider John Gambadoro and now confirmed by MLB.com beat reporter Steve Gilbert. That likely means they’ll finish out the season with this starting five: Zac Gallen, Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodríguez, and DeSclafani.

Beyond those five, the team has Bryce Jarvis, Dylan Ray, Yu-Min Lin, and Spencer Giesting. I’ve already written about those four pitchers earlier this month, and their overall outlook hasn’t changed since. With the D-backs acquiring four starting pitcher prospects, all of whom carry more upside, they’re further buried down the prospect list.

Gallen is already a candidate for a qualifying offer, and after the season he’s had, might be inclined to take it. His track record beyond 2025 warrants as such, and it’s not unrealistic for him to get a $21-22 million offer in the open market. The D-backs need pitching for 2026, and Gallen needs a better contract season to hit the open market.

Pfaadt and Rodríguez are in the middle of long-term deals, so those two need to step up and provide useful outings at some point. Both pitchers suffer the combination of middling stuff and poor in-zone command, which is why they’ve been hit hard on the regular. Both pitchers struggled in the Detroit series. Until that changes, the D-backs are going nowhere as a club.

Right now, the hope is that Ryne Nelson steps up to become the new ace of the staff. There were some glimpses of it in his last start against the Tigers. He struck out eight in 5.1 innings, including a career-high six whiffs on his slider, but an error and a middle-middle fastball to their most consistent power threat resulted in another loss. Nelson needs to unlock more consistent swing-and-miss from something other than his high-velocity (95.5 MPH), high-carry (19.4” induced vertical break) four-seamer.

For the D-backs to be competitive in 2026, they need all four pitchers mentioned to be on the club and pitching as they’re capable of. Unless the organization made a mistake in investing in these guys, which is a whole other Pandora’s box to open.

The Return for Merrill Kelly

I’m not going to do a detailed breakdown of the three pitchers. Someone who has more data on them and a better understanding of those traits than I do can answer that question better. Since Lance Brozdowski already published it publicly, there will be no prospect paywall on this deadline post.

The Slade Cecconi comp for Hagaman is very interesting, considering the team dealt him in December to pick up Josh Naylor. Based on these notes, I would rate Hagaman as a potential No. 3 starter with Drake and Bratt as No. 4 and 5 starters, respectively.

None of these pitchers projects to throw a pitch for the D-backs in 2025. I have Drake being assigned to Triple-A Reno, Bratt to Double-A Amarillo, and Hagaman to Low-A Visalia. In terms of the top 10 pitching prospects in the organization after the deadline, here’s how I’d rank them.

1. RHP Cristian Mena
2. LHP Kohl Drake
3. RHP Daniel Eagen
4. RHP David Hagaman
5. RHP Ashton Izzi
6. LHP Mitch Bratt
7. RHP Patrick Forbes
8. RHP Brian Curley
9. LHP Brandyn Garcia (RP)
10. RHP Hunter Cranton (RP)

With the deadline pretty much over, I’ll probably start organizing my prospect list for the end of the season.

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Michael McDermott blends the sharp eye of a scout and the insight of an analyst to provide the best and most comprehensive coverage on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Michael has been credentialed for 50 MLB games at Chase Field, the last three years of the Arizona Fall League, and has written about the team for more than 10 years.