Reacting to Lance Brozdowski's Zac Gallen Trade Package

Marquee Sports Network analyst Lance Brozdowski, one of the brightest analysts in the game of baseball today, published a video on YouTube regarding the top trade deadline targets. Here’s the video, with the video starting at the 12:21 time stamp.

Naturally, one of the segments included Zac Gallen and Eugenio Suárez. Brozdowski put together two trade packages, one involving the Yankees and the other involving the Cubs. You’ll want to watch the embedded video to get an understanding of how he comes up with the packages.

The prospects he includes in the deal come from FanGraphs’ prospect evaluations. Brozdowski also uses the trade surplus value for prospects model developed by Craig Edwards back in 2018. Here’s Part 2, which covers prospects outside the Top 100. Both pieces are worth a read in order to follow along.

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Yankees Package

• RHP Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz
• RHP Ben Hess

The issue with the package is more about the timeline than the quality of the prospects coming back. Brozdowski rates Rodriguez-Cruz as a 45+ FV and Hess as a 45 FV prospect. Neither pitcher was a top draft pick, but they have developed into legitimate prospects in the Yankees’ system.

Statistically, both pitchers have performed well at the High-A level. Rodriguez-Cruz had a 29.0% strikeout rate and a 10.9% walk rate at that level. His swinging strike rate clocked in at a solid 14.8%. In addition to missing bats at a solid clip, he’s producing ground balls over 50% consistently in his minor league career.

Hess has more strikeouts, at 35.4%, but more walks at 14.2%. That’s an excellent K-BB% despite obvious command issues. He’s getting whiffs on 14.0% of his pitches. He was a teammate of Diamondbacks pitching prospects Dylan Ray and Grayson Hitt in the one year they shared at Alabama. It’s his first year in pro ball, but he could be a quick-to-the-majors type arm if he shows better strike-throwing ability.

While at face value it’s a solid return for two rentals, it doesn’t necessarily fit what the Diamondbacks are looking for. With holes in both the rotation and the back end of the bullpen, they’re going to want more immediate impact. The two pitching prospects have combined for more than one start above A-ball, with Rodriguez-Cruz making his Double-A debut last week. Hess is a 2024 draft selection that should fly up the Yankees’ system. Both prospects I would give a 2027 ETA.

Cubs Package

• 1B Jonathon Long
• OF/DH Owen Caissie

The Yankees’ package included a pair of arms, while the Cubs’ package included a pair of bats. That’s more of an indictment of the Cubs’ system, which already graduated their most impactful pitching arm (Cade Horton) and lacks pitching depth. In terms of prospect grades, Caissie is a 45+ FV and Long 45 on FanGraphs.

Long would be a potential solution at first base for the Diamondbacks, although it’s tougher as a right-handed bat. They don’t have any first base types in their system, especially with the focus on third base for LuJames Groover. However, if Jordan Lawlar were to stick at third base in 2026, that changes the calculus for the organization.

Long is slashing .323/.401/.514 with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate in Iowa. That’s good for a 136 wRC+, which at face value screams an MLB-ready prospect. He’s got solid strikeout (19.6%) and walk rates (11.0%) at the level. He regularly hits the ball hard, with 51.0% of his contact over 95.0 MPH and an 11.2% barrel rate. At the same time, his chase rate is a solid 25.2%. His inclusion would fit well in Arizona’s organization.

The prospect I have concerns about is Caissie. He has a strikeout rate above 30.0%, which to me is a disqualifier for a prospect. While he doesn’t chase out of the zone, with a 24.4% chase rate, he has a 22.2% in-zone whiff rate.

However, he makes up for the swing-and-miss issues with a strong batted ball profile. He has a hard-hit rate of 53.8% and a barrel rate of 20.2%. He has the type of bat who can flip the outcome of a game when he connects. Ideally, he fits the Pavin Smith strong-side platoon role at DH, with a higher power ceiling, and emergency outfielder.

Make sure to check out Lance Brozdowski’s Substack and make sure to subscribe to his YouTube channel. I found him through a video he made about Brandon Pfaadt’s stuff that was published before his debut two years ago.

For additional reading, you’ll also want to check out my piece on the dilemma the Diamondbacks face regarding the decision to trade Gallen.

D-backs Under Review is Michael McDermott’s publication for deep analysis dives, game coverage, prospect coverage, and breaking down the biggest news topics involving the Arizona Diamondbacks. Michael has been writing about the D-backs since the 2015 season, with stops at AZ Snake Pit, Diamondbacks On SI, Venom Strikes, and Burn City Sports. He has covered over 40 MLB games at Chase Field and the Arizona Fall League.

You can follow D-backs Under Review on X at @DbacksReview and Michael @MichaelMcD8393